Why the old guard still predominates at a time of critical change?
After months of endless speculation, China's new leaders
have been unveiled. An informative parade of bios here is provided by The Diplomat,
an international current-affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific region.
Why are five about-to-retire leaders in a seven-member top leadership and why are they still considered up to the task ? This is explained in my Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post of 14 November, 2012 entiled “Old guard can still reform China”. A PDF version, with a somewhat different title, is here.
Let there be no mistake that the task ahead is anything less than Herculean.
Premier Wen Jiabao has forewarned many times that China’s development is “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”. But the problems are getting more and more acute – rampant corruption, tightly-knitted vested interests, market dominance and inefficient capital allocation of state-owned enterprises, slower growth, aging demographics, and environmental and resource constraints.
Chairman Mao once said that “even the Communist Party can get old”. Now turning over 90 years, the Communist Party is struggling to keep up with the times. China is adding over six million university graduates a year and over 500 million citizens use the internet, all with new hopes and aspirations. The old style of repressive governance is past its sell-by date.
Over three decades of reform have miraculously changed China’s economy, now within sight to be the world’s largest in a decade or so. But over the decades, no leadership has dared to dismantle the ticking time-bomb of political reform. Premier Wen has alluded to the urgency of political reform but his has been a lone and ineffectual voice in the leadership. Absent this reform, the system remains as “extractive” as ever, as most wealth accrues to the small elite group of “princelings” and their allied vested interests. The historical lessons in “Why Nations Fail” (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012) are sobering. Click here
According to President Hu Jintao, the country is facing Four Trials and Four Threats.
The Four Trials are in the areas of Governance, Reform, Market Economy, and External Environment The Four Threats are Mental Laxity, Inadequate Competence, Detachment from the People, and Negativism and Corruption.
From Egypt to Myanmar dictatorial regimes are making way for democracy and freedom. China is finding herself increasingly surrounded by democracies of different shapes and sizes. No wonder, it is said that Alexis de Tocqueville’s seminal work - “French Revolution” - has been doing the rounds in bedside reading of Wang Qishan, now to take charge of the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection (CCDI), China’s anti-graft organ, and Li Keqiang, the new Premier-in-waiting.
It is instructive that not long before the 18th Party Congress, Li has signed a foreward in a 468-page World Bank Report jointly undertaken with the Development Research Centre of the State Council (a rare occurrence), which contains a series of measured yet significant reform proposals on state-owned enterprises, local authorities’ powers, access to healthcare and social security, migrant labour’s entitlements (the hukou system), green economy, and the role of civil society. ("China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society"- Click here)
It is also instructive that at the 18th Party Congress, out-going President Hu reiterated the Party’s consensus aim of realizing a middle-income society by 2020, doubling per capita income from $5,530 in 2011to $10,000 in the process.
While the inclusion of the old guard in the latest top leadership line-up is a political compromise between factions and vested interests, it is perhaps unavoidable in order not to deny the hard-earned last-chance of making it to the top of able, well-tried, and certainly well-connected, if un-colourful, performers.
At an uncertain juncture of China’s critical cross-roads, the current line-up could at least ensure stability while meaningful changes are taking place under Xi and Li’s leadership.
Out-going President Hu used the words of “life or death” to describe the urgency of reforms, in particular, in tackling corruption. Such warnings are broadly echoed by in-coming President Xi, who openly expressed praise for President Hu's seizing the moment by setting an example of complete power transfer at one go, including chairmanship of the Military Commission.
Together with the reduction in size of the Politburo Standing Committee from nine to seven Members, this should greatly enhance the power of the new leadership to take on the difficult reforms ahead.
When the survival of the whole Party is at stake, there is perhaps nothing more cogent to concentrate the minds, even those who have only five more years to serve before retirement. This is particularly so as a clear blueprint for the immediate future is already in place, under the lead of a strong and confident President and a reform-minded Premier.
Why are five about-to-retire leaders in a seven-member top leadership and why are they still considered up to the task ? This is explained in my Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post of 14 November, 2012 entiled “Old guard can still reform China”. A PDF version, with a somewhat different title, is here.
Let there be no mistake that the task ahead is anything less than Herculean.
Premier Wen Jiabao has forewarned many times that China’s development is “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”. But the problems are getting more and more acute – rampant corruption, tightly-knitted vested interests, market dominance and inefficient capital allocation of state-owned enterprises, slower growth, aging demographics, and environmental and resource constraints.
Chairman Mao once said that “even the Communist Party can get old”. Now turning over 90 years, the Communist Party is struggling to keep up with the times. China is adding over six million university graduates a year and over 500 million citizens use the internet, all with new hopes and aspirations. The old style of repressive governance is past its sell-by date.
Over three decades of reform have miraculously changed China’s economy, now within sight to be the world’s largest in a decade or so. But over the decades, no leadership has dared to dismantle the ticking time-bomb of political reform. Premier Wen has alluded to the urgency of political reform but his has been a lone and ineffectual voice in the leadership. Absent this reform, the system remains as “extractive” as ever, as most wealth accrues to the small elite group of “princelings” and their allied vested interests. The historical lessons in “Why Nations Fail” (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012) are sobering. Click here
According to President Hu Jintao, the country is facing Four Trials and Four Threats.
The Four Trials are in the areas of Governance, Reform, Market Economy, and External Environment The Four Threats are Mental Laxity, Inadequate Competence, Detachment from the People, and Negativism and Corruption.
From Egypt to Myanmar dictatorial regimes are making way for democracy and freedom. China is finding herself increasingly surrounded by democracies of different shapes and sizes. No wonder, it is said that Alexis de Tocqueville’s seminal work - “French Revolution” - has been doing the rounds in bedside reading of Wang Qishan, now to take charge of the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection (CCDI), China’s anti-graft organ, and Li Keqiang, the new Premier-in-waiting.
It is instructive that not long before the 18th Party Congress, Li has signed a foreward in a 468-page World Bank Report jointly undertaken with the Development Research Centre of the State Council (a rare occurrence), which contains a series of measured yet significant reform proposals on state-owned enterprises, local authorities’ powers, access to healthcare and social security, migrant labour’s entitlements (the hukou system), green economy, and the role of civil society. ("China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society"- Click here)
It is also instructive that at the 18th Party Congress, out-going President Hu reiterated the Party’s consensus aim of realizing a middle-income society by 2020, doubling per capita income from $5,530 in 2011to $10,000 in the process.
While the inclusion of the old guard in the latest top leadership line-up is a political compromise between factions and vested interests, it is perhaps unavoidable in order not to deny the hard-earned last-chance of making it to the top of able, well-tried, and certainly well-connected, if un-colourful, performers.
At an uncertain juncture of China’s critical cross-roads, the current line-up could at least ensure stability while meaningful changes are taking place under Xi and Li’s leadership.
Out-going President Hu used the words of “life or death” to describe the urgency of reforms, in particular, in tackling corruption. Such warnings are broadly echoed by in-coming President Xi, who openly expressed praise for President Hu's seizing the moment by setting an example of complete power transfer at one go, including chairmanship of the Military Commission.
Together with the reduction in size of the Politburo Standing Committee from nine to seven Members, this should greatly enhance the power of the new leadership to take on the difficult reforms ahead.
When the survival of the whole Party is at stake, there is perhaps nothing more cogent to concentrate the minds, even those who have only five more years to serve before retirement. This is particularly so as a clear blueprint for the immediate future is already in place, under the lead of a strong and confident President and a reform-minded Premier.
posted by Chinawatch at 12:20 pm
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