Creative thinking, not Passports, may diffuse mounting conflicts in the South China Sea

"China has once again gotten under the skin of its neighbors — this time with a few offending strokes on a map here, printed on its revised passports, that show Beijing staking its claim on the entire South China Sea, Taiwan and regions of contention between India and China," according to an article on 24 November in the Global Business Times, a digital global news publication here

Passports don't change the realities on the ground as rival claims have become more assertive following the recent U.S. Pivot to Asia. Let's not forget these disputes have been around and lying reasonably dormant for a long time.

China's neigbours welcome a free ride on the U.S. Pivot to hedge against a 800-pound panda, even if it is arguably benign as nearly all of China's neighbours, including Japan, depend on the Middle Kingdom as their largest trading partner.

The Pivot, however, means only that the U.S primarily wants to re-balance the dynamics in the Asia Pacific. America doesn't necessarily want to go to war with China over these tiny islands or outcrops.

So while not taking sides on territorial disputes, America is boosting up Asian Pacific allies' military comfort zone to stand up to China. However, the United States doesn't want these allies, especially Japan, to push the envelop too far so as to precipate an actual war, which would then force the U.S to side with its allies in a frontal conflict against China.

So the ideal situation for the U.S. is that China is kept in check by her neigbours under a U.S. umbrella, in the form of closer military ties rather than stationing massive hardware or boots on the ground.

The danger is that while things are hotting up in the South China Sea, the absence of an agreed code of conduct in these waters may well spin things out of control with unintended, unwelcomed and uncontrollable military escalations for the entire region.

In a recent Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post here I argued for such a code of conduct, setting aside territorial disputes for the future and re-focussing on econcomic cooperation.

Absent such a code of conduct, against more and more strident rival territorial claimants, China is being handed a golden opportunity to assert more proactively her own long-held territorial claims, something she would be hard-pressed to do without the Pivot.

So now China has succeeded in establishing a military garrison (though tiny) right in the heart of the South China Sea between the Paracels and the Spratlys. And China is deploping un-armed civilian marine adminstration surveillance vessels in a "political exercise of sea power". Click here

Naturally the South China Sea is more than just territorial integrity. It constains vital sea lanes for China's economic survival. A further attraction is of course the known energy and other resources in these vital waters.

But even more than these is that the South and East China Seas have become the main theatre for U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry as America is pivoting towards the region and China is developing her blue-water navy.

Amidst the discord, it may be opportune to re-think a possible new Asian Order. Click here

Despite such geopolitical rivarly, there is more that China can deliver as a partner and stakeholder than as a U.S adversary. For example, China can help the U.S. achieve its desired re-balancing in the Asia Pacific theatre as seen by Zbigniew Brzezinski’s "Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power” without being pushed into a corner in a Cold War mentality. Click here

These geopolitical considerations are very much on the minds of China's new leaders even as they grapple with the Middle Kingdom's critical domestic challenges.

Watch a TV panel discussion on PressTV here 

Best regards,

Andrew

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com