My Novermber update on China
Greetings from Hong Kong, where I have now moved to my new home in Repulse Bay, following permanent relocation from London since 19 May this year.
Geopolitics
As summer has turned into autumn, a Rising China is feeling a less amicable if not chillier international environment. The winds and clouds are rising across the horizon, from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea, from Japan to India, coming mainly from the United States. For an analysis of the undercurrents at play, you may wish to visit my recent research note ‘Global dynamics with a Rising China in a Multi-polar World’ at
http://www.
Much of these dynamics are being shaped by a shifting political paradigm in the United States in the run-up to and beyond the mid-term elections, especially in the field of foreign policy, where America has wakened up to her recent relative neglect of the Asian Pacific and Indian Ocean chessboard. Republicans (if not the Neo-Cons) are now back to take a tighter grip of the levers of foreign policy with a more assertive vengeance. Ten of the Conservative power-brokers are highlighted by Josh Rogan in the October 25 issue of Foreign Policy at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/
In Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power (Random House, 19 October 2010), Robert Kaplan outlines what he sees as America’s new centre of gravity.
Geo-economics
On the financial and economic front, these global dynamics are playing out in a looming ‘currency war’, regardless of what political leaders may say in public. This risks threatening the global economic recovery. See my research note published in The Analyst, the official journal of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India (ICFAI) University Press at
http://www.
You may be interested in how China is resisting the pressures on the Chinese yuan to appreciate too drastically at a CNBC live interview at http://www.cnbc.com/id/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/
The Fed has just rolled out another round of Quantitative Easing, or QE2. You may wish to see a CNBC live interview on the prognosis of a phased roll-out by the Fed at
http://www.cnbc.com/id/
You may also wish to see how QE is no longer fit for the purpose. Instead of stimulating American consumtpion or reducing imports to the US, it looks more likely to spawn inflation and asset bubbles in emerging markets. Meanwhile, the real challenge to the West of competitive white-collar manpower from emerging markets, including China, is being left by the wayside. See a summary of the salient points at
http://www.linkedin.com/
There is little doubt that the emerging markets, particularly the Asian economies, rather than the mature West, will remain engines of global growth in the coming decades. You may wish to visit the feature article Asian Economies: New Engines of Global Growth in the August issue of The Analyst at http://www.
China is set to be a leading engine of global growth for many years to come as her domestic consumption, starting from a relatively low base, surges ahead. But don’t expect that her economy becomes as dependent on consumption as in the West (70% on average) until urbanization, and with it, the proportion of her rising middle-class, reaches the same percentage by 2030. View a live TV interview (China in transition) on CNBC Asia Pacific at http://www.cnbc.com/id/
Risks, Challenges and Opportunities
Below are just a few of the latest updates:
Risks
As China remains a rapidly changing work-in-progress whose norm is often at odds with the West, there is no lack of ‘China bashers’, as well as, indeed, ‘China shorters’ for some time to come. On whether to short China, you may wish to visit my research note which I used earlier for a debate in London as a Speaker in opposition to a notable China shorter, a leading contrarian investor betting on the possible collapse of China’s economy. This research note, entitled ‘Is China the Next Dubai?’, may be accessed at
http://www.
Regarding China’s heated property market, you may wish to see how China grapples with a burgeoning bubble at a CNBC interview at http://classic.cnbc.com/id/
Challenges
China has still to overcome the negative image associated with her meteoric Rise. This was put in sharp focus with the latest Nobel Peace Prize being awarded to Liu Xiaobo, an imprisoned dissident. You may wish to view an Aljazeera live TV interview on What Nobel Really Wanted at http://english.aljazeera.net/
China’s African engagement has attracted as much international praise as concern, including native recipients of China’s trade and investment. The conundrum is illustrated in a Wall Street article on Angola, where I was quoted at http://online.wsj.com/article/
http://www.
Perhaps the extent of unease or paranoia in certain quarters with China’s Rise may be illustrated by an alleged ‘land grab’ when the PLA was supposedly sighted in Giligit, Northern Pakistan, as reported in the New York Times on 26 August, 2010. You may wish to visit the details of a live TV debate on Times Now of India at http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-
Opportunities
All the while, China is increasingly going global. Witness a reprint of an earlier article by the BN (Business Network) Magazine in London on how China’s global capital could partner with Middle East Sovereign Wealth Funds to propel global green investments in response to Climate Change. This article, entitled An Eastern Alchemy for Global Harmony, is accessible at http://www.
China’s African engagement has attracted as much international praise as concern, including native recipients of China’s trade and investment. The conundrum is illustrated in a Wall Street article on Angola, where I was quoted at http://online.wsj.com/article/
http://www.
Perhaps the extent of unease or paranoia in certain quarters with China’s Rise may be illustrated by an alleged ‘land grab’ when the PLA was supposedly sighted in Giligit, Northern Pakistan, as reported in the New York Times on 26 August, 2010. You may wish to visit the details of a live TV debate on Times Now of India at http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-
Opportunities
All the while, China is increasingly going global. Witness a reprint of an earlier article by the BN (Business Network) Magazine in London on how China’s global capital could partner with Middle East Sovereign Wealth Funds to propel global green investments in response to Climate Change. This article, entitled An Eastern Alchemy for Global Harmony, is accessible at http://www.
China business electives for MBA programmes
If you are interested in executive education in a China-centric era, please visit my two modular China Business Study Electives, which draw on well-researched up-to-date China business case studies. These Electives are (a) Understanding China Businesses and (b) Global strategic Management and Cross-cultural Management. They consist of ten classes of three hours each with pro-active student participation. The detailed syllabuses can be accessed at http://www.
Convenient web-links on China
Virtually all of the above links can be found on my website www.
A prestigious speaking platform in Hong Kong
The Harvard Business School Association of Hong Kong organizes regular events featuring international speakers of repute for the Harvard and business community in Hong Kong. As an elected Officer, may I extend to you the opportunity of fielding your nominated Speaker on a suitable topic. We would be happy to organize an event on a mutually convenient date entirely at our cost with acknowledgement of your or your organization’s support provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation costs.
Convenient web-links on China
Virtually all of the above links can be found on my website www.
A prestigious speaking platform in Hong Kong
The Harvard Business School Association of Hong Kong organizes regular events featuring international speakers of repute for the Harvard and business community in Hong Kong. As an elected Officer, may I extend to you the opportunity of fielding your nominated Speaker on a suitable topic. We would be happy to organize an event on a mutually convenient date entirely at our cost with acknowledgement of your or your organization’s support provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation costs.
Cheer up and Chill out
If the above is too heavy and you are looking for a softer touch, please visit http://www.
for impressions of a beautiful UNESCO World Heritage Site in China’s Hunan Province which I recently visited. The site has gained international renown as its exotic scenery inspired the Hollywood 3-D film Avatar. Or to cheer up and chill out, check out for some colorful and inspiring ‘Chicken Soup’ images at http://www.
Best personal regards,
Andrew
Andrew
posted by Chinawatch at 7:32 am
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