New Asia-Pacific Military Realities and Whether Potential Conflict could be Minimized
A careful reading of the following suggests that war clouds may well be gathering in the Asia Pacific as U.S. military and foreign policy is re-focussing on what used to America's Lake at a time of rising tensions between China and her Asian neighbours in the South China Sea:
(i) Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC 2011, Annual Report to Congress
Click here
(ii) America's Pacific Century, Hilary Clinton in Foreign Policy, November 2011 Click here
(iii) Asian Aliances in the 21st Century, Dan Blumenthal et al, 2011, Project 2049 Institute, Arlington VA Click here
These stark realities are disturbing. The following observations, however, may be instructive:
(a) China has huge domestic problems, including resource and ecological constraints, inequalities, corruption, regional imbalance, asset bubbles, rising middle class aspirations, declining export competitiveness, and an aging population profile in the midst of a leadership transition. Moreover, even if China's economy is slated to exceed that of the U.S. by 2027, China is set to remain at best a middle-income country like Turkey in per-capita terms well beyond mid-century. Therefore, China simply cannot afford to cherish hegemonic ambitions by entering into a military competition with the U.S. at the expense of her own economic stability. A peaceful environment is crucial to China's survival.
(b) However, that does not mean that China would accept violation of her vital "core interests", especially territorial integrity, including Taiwan. Bearing in mind China's recent humiliating history of foreign occupation, it is only natural that China is building up military defense comprehensively. Notwistanding recent modernization, China's military capabilities are still many miles behind the U.S.. China is only starting to build her first, out-dated, aircraft carrier compared with the U.S 's 11 ultra-modern aircraft carrier battle groups. China is therefore in no position to challenge the military supremacy of the U.S. for many years to come. But there is no doubt that China's access-denial capabilities are increasing in the Taiwan Strait where her core interests need to be most protected.
(c) History dictates that the One China Policy is an extremely sensitive issue to the Chinese people. That's why Beijing re-doubled military deterence against Taiwan in response to the former Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian's separatist tendencies. In the light of recent developments, however, eventual peaceful unification (without a pre-determined target date) remains the best option. Unless irretrievably provoked, China is unilkely to trigger a cross-Strait military conflict.
(d) Likewise, the security of the South China Sea represents a core interest to China as the bulk of China's energy and trade, her lifeblood, flows through these sea lanes. Naturally, China would not concede their access to complete U.S. dominance.
(e) Taiwan and China's Asian neighbours, including Japan and South Korea, all thrive by deepening trade ties with Mainland China. Indeed, China has now become their largest trading partner. But all want the security umbrella of the U.S. to hedge against China's influence. Most of these Asian entities, however, are becoming more independent and nationalistic. They are unlikely to be willing to act U.S. client states in a rigid alliance especially if such an alignment is seen as an anti-China bloc.
(f) Notwithstanding U.S. undoubted global military supremacy, the world has now passed its unipolar phase. In a multi-polar world, the U.S. has to live and work with other rising powers, including China, Russia, India, Turkey, and a changing Middle East whose national interests may or may not coincide with those of the U.S. (Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, 21 November, 2008, National Intelligence Council, Washington DC).
(g) In a transformed world, the continuance of a domineering mind-set relying on military supremacy has proven not to work very well, as in the case of the so-called War on Terror. What is more, it feeds into a classic security dilemma where both sides would try to out-do each other, leading to increased chances of miscalculation and mis-manoevre, which could precipate open conflict if not uncontrollable escalation towards a global holocaust.
In a multi-polar world, maybe there is a better way to exercise American leadership than seeking to project global military dominance?
Best regards,
Andrew
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
(i) Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC 2011, Annual Report to Congress
Click here
(ii) America's Pacific Century, Hilary Clinton in Foreign Policy, November 2011 Click here
(iii) Asian Aliances in the 21st Century, Dan Blumenthal et al, 2011, Project 2049 Institute, Arlington VA Click here
These stark realities are disturbing. The following observations, however, may be instructive:
(a) China has huge domestic problems, including resource and ecological constraints, inequalities, corruption, regional imbalance, asset bubbles, rising middle class aspirations, declining export competitiveness, and an aging population profile in the midst of a leadership transition. Moreover, even if China's economy is slated to exceed that of the U.S. by 2027, China is set to remain at best a middle-income country like Turkey in per-capita terms well beyond mid-century. Therefore, China simply cannot afford to cherish hegemonic ambitions by entering into a military competition with the U.S. at the expense of her own economic stability. A peaceful environment is crucial to China's survival.
(b) However, that does not mean that China would accept violation of her vital "core interests", especially territorial integrity, including Taiwan. Bearing in mind China's recent humiliating history of foreign occupation, it is only natural that China is building up military defense comprehensively. Notwistanding recent modernization, China's military capabilities are still many miles behind the U.S.. China is only starting to build her first, out-dated, aircraft carrier compared with the U.S 's 11 ultra-modern aircraft carrier battle groups. China is therefore in no position to challenge the military supremacy of the U.S. for many years to come. But there is no doubt that China's access-denial capabilities are increasing in the Taiwan Strait where her core interests need to be most protected.
(c) History dictates that the One China Policy is an extremely sensitive issue to the Chinese people. That's why Beijing re-doubled military deterence against Taiwan in response to the former Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian's separatist tendencies. In the light of recent developments, however, eventual peaceful unification (without a pre-determined target date) remains the best option. Unless irretrievably provoked, China is unilkely to trigger a cross-Strait military conflict.
(d) Likewise, the security of the South China Sea represents a core interest to China as the bulk of China's energy and trade, her lifeblood, flows through these sea lanes. Naturally, China would not concede their access to complete U.S. dominance.
(e) Taiwan and China's Asian neighbours, including Japan and South Korea, all thrive by deepening trade ties with Mainland China. Indeed, China has now become their largest trading partner. But all want the security umbrella of the U.S. to hedge against China's influence. Most of these Asian entities, however, are becoming more independent and nationalistic. They are unlikely to be willing to act U.S. client states in a rigid alliance especially if such an alignment is seen as an anti-China bloc.
(f) Notwithstanding U.S. undoubted global military supremacy, the world has now passed its unipolar phase. In a multi-polar world, the U.S. has to live and work with other rising powers, including China, Russia, India, Turkey, and a changing Middle East whose national interests may or may not coincide with those of the U.S. (Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, 21 November, 2008, National Intelligence Council, Washington DC).
(g) In a transformed world, the continuance of a domineering mind-set relying on military supremacy has proven not to work very well, as in the case of the so-called War on Terror. What is more, it feeds into a classic security dilemma where both sides would try to out-do each other, leading to increased chances of miscalculation and mis-manoevre, which could precipate open conflict if not uncontrollable escalation towards a global holocaust.
In a multi-polar world, maybe there is a better way to exercise American leadership than seeking to project global military dominance?
Best regards,
Andrew
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
posted by Chinawatch at 1:56 am
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